| Title | Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world |
| Publication Type | Journal Article |
| Authors | Anderson, Kevin, and Alice Bows |
| Journal | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
| Volume | 369 |
| Issue | 1934 |
| Pagination | 20-44 |
| ISSN | 1364-503X, 1471-2962 |
| Abstract | The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. |
| URL | http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20 |
| DOI | 10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 |
| Short Title | Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change |
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